The rocket menace that no one wanted to acknowledge
Where have the rockets suddenly come from?
For six years the Hezbollah rockets in Lebanon were a source of contempt in the Israeli press. Analysts, economists and others argued that the defense establishment regularly exaggerated a peripheral threat to influence deliberations on the budget. Why else would the head of Military Intelligence decide that the Hezbollah had 12,000 rockets, when only a few months later he had claimed it held only 11,000? In the past few days it turns out that the imaginary Hezbollah arsenal is real, and it is striking Haifa, Safed and Tiberias.
The denial was not a press monopoly. Politicians and even some General Staff officers refused to regard the issue as a priority. The pullout from Lebanon, following 18 years of blood letting was accompanied with such an enormous sense of relief that any talk on what was left behind was considered troublesome.
The rocket deliveries continued on weekly flights from Iran to Damascus and Beirut, and Israel followed the movement with a near academic curiosity.
...If the Israel Defense Forces tried to avoid friction, Hezbollah sought it out. In the years that followed the Shi'ite organization deployed in dozens of positions along the border. On several occasions these outposts served as launching pads for Hezbollah attacks, including attempts to abduct soldiers. In some instances, the IDF responded by targeting these outposts, but it never sought to prevent them from reclaiming their positions along the border once the trouble was over.
Israel held back out of concern for the rocket menace. At the General Staff one school of thought maintained that the Hezbollah is restrained by various regional developments, and that it never really intended to make use of the rockets. The attack last week has revealed serious failures in the way the IDF forces functioned, but what is worse is the conclusion that reconciling with the presence of Hezbollah forces along the border decided the fate of the reservists that were killed and abducted.
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