Friday, November 13, 2009

Can You Figure This Academic Theory Out?

These academics - Corinna Carmen Gayer, Otto Suhr Institute for Political Science Free University Berlin, Germany; Shiri Landman, Swiss Center for Conflict Research, Management and Resolution Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel; Eran Halperin, Lauder School of Government IDC Herzliya, Israel; Daniel Bar-Tal, School of Education Tel-Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel - have authored this article:

Overcoming Psychological Barriers to Peaceful Conflict Resolution - The Role of Arguments about Losses

It's abstract summary:-

One of the most important psychological barriers to conflict resolution is the rigid structure of the sociopsychological repertoire that evolves in societies immersed in intractable conflict. This article examines ways to overcome the rigidity of this repertoire in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Specifically, in line with the prospect theory, the authors assumed that elicitation of beliefs about losses stemming from the continuing conflict may bring about a process of "unfreezing."

To test this assumption, an exploratory study with a national sample of the Israeli-Jewish population and two subsequent experimental studies were conducted. The results demonstrated that exposure to information about losses inherent in continuing the conflict induces higher willingness to acquire new information about possible solutions to the conflict, higher willingness to reevaluate current positions about it, and more support for compromises than the exposure to neutral information or to information about possible gains derived from the peace agreement.


It appeared in Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 53, No. 6, 951-975 (2009)

Let's repeat the main assumption:

...exposure to information about losses inherent in continuing the conflict induces higher willingness...to reevaluate current positions about it, and more support for compromises...


In other words, it's a restatement of the First Lebanon War Corollary pushed by Peace Now:

play up your dead, have your media misrepresent
the conflict and boom!, you'll withdraw, retreat,
yield, dismantle, run away.

Now, that's rigidity!

Let me add:

My point is that if you adopt, a priori, this perception, you always will seek out compromise based on loss and (mis)information. No country can continue in such a parameter of existence on the diplomatic and military sphere of activity. This is a formula for capitulation, weakness and defeatism.

And as a friend wrote me just know, with Islam's implacable hatred, this "elicitation of beliefs' theory won't work as the hatred we face is bigger and preached better.




UPDATE

Have now spotted this:

Israel's dark view of the world

Many Israelis see little need for a peace settlement but feel isolated in what they regard as an increasingly hostile world

...Within Israel, there is very little pressure for a peace settlement. Israelis are getting on with their lives, without – for now – the threat of suicide bombers. There are virtually no rocket attacks from the areas controlled by Hamas and Hezbollah. The barrier that snakes through the West Bank makes Israelis feel safer – and also less interested in what happens on the other side.

As for the Gaza strip, most Israelis do not want to think or talk about it. The only people I met who seemed worried about the situation there were foreign journalists, plus a few Israeli liberals – and Tony Blair, who as a peace envoy keeps telling the Israelis that the people of Gaza need to be "given a way forward". If pressed, moderate Israelis admit to being uncomfortable that their government (like Egypt) will not allow exports out of Gaza or building supplies in (on the grounds that Hamas would profit from any trade).



Fits the theory as qualified by me. Up the violence ante - suicide bombers, Qassam rocket sarracks, etc., with the 'proper' media slant, and you have a weakened Israeli public.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

According to Prospect theory, people are more willing to take risks when thinking about losses than when they're thinking about gains.
Hammer people with conflict=losses and, just to avoid losing, they'll end up taking greater risks than they would if they considered (or were hammered with) peace=gains.

YMedad said...

That, I think, is a bog problem for Israel, as I pointed out.