The AFP has a story today in France 24 that the United States is warning Israel against attacking Iran’s nuclear program because the attack might cause Egypt and Jordan to end their peace treaties with Israel. If this story is accurate, it reveals either an appalling American ignorance of the Middle East or a just as appalling wishful thinking–propaganda–posing as foreign policy.
Egypt and Jordan are Arab states. Iran is a Persian state. Egypt and Jordan are majority Sunni Islam, Iran is majority Shi’a Islam. The Sunni have hated and ostracized the Shi’a for more than a thousand years. They are going to give up their long-standing tribal hatreds on behalf of Jewish Israel? Does the never-quoted Obama administration “official” in the AFP story not even know that the King of Jordan is famous for warning against the growth of the Middle East’s “Shi’a Crescent”?
A better argument would be that the Sunnis will stand by and privately cheer Israel beating up on the Iranians while making some public condemnation. But break their peace treaties? Only the Shi’a benefit if the treaties between Arab nations and Israel are broken, and it is highly unlikely that the Sunni are going to hand their long-hated apostates such a victory...
Thursday, October 11, 2012
A Propaganda Observation
An observation by Don Kirkin of Foreign Affairs:-